Luisa Santiago voted Democrat for Decades until 2024, when the 59-year-old Florida retiree backed Donald Trump and convinced many of her friends to follow suit. The economy and transgender issues had pushed her away from the Democratic Party. Two years later, in a follow-up interview after taking part in a new NBC News/Telemundo poll, she called Trump a “disappointment” and his deportation policies “brutal” and “cold.” “It was a big deal when we voted for Republicans, and then we feel like it was a complete mistake,” Santiago told NBC News. “I’m more embarrassed than my friends because I was the one who convinced them to vote for him.”

The poll suggests Santiago is far from alone. Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024, up from 32% in 2020, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA). The organization cites Pew Research Center data for the 2024 figure and calls the surge one of several factors behind his victory. Less than three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, his approval among Latino voters stands at 27% in the NBC News/Telemundo survey.

So are Latino voters really swinging away from the GOP? The data says yes. And it says the reasons have more to do with Trump than with any new love for Democrats.

Trump’s support among Latino voters has dropped sharply

The NBC News/Telemundo poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters from Sept. 21 to 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. When asked which party they want in control of Congress, 59% chose Democrats, and 35% chose Republicans. That 24-point gap is twice as wide as it was at this stage of the 2024 race. But Democrats led by 43 points at the same point in 2018.

The movement reaches into Trump’s own coalition. Among Latino voters who supported him in 2024, 14% now want a Democratic Congress and 8% haven’t decided. A negative view of the Republican Party is now held by 62% of Latino voters. This represents a 16-point jump in two years and the worst figure for the party since 2016.

The size of this group explains why both parties are watching. Latinos now make up 16% of all eligible voters, about 39 million people, which makes them the second-largest group after white voters, according to the Pew Research Center. They have added more eligible voters than any other group since 2022. And they are the youngest, with a median age of 39. Still, Latino voters cast only around a tenth of the ballots in recent midterm elections, NBC News reported. So turnout matters as much as preference.

Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican half of the bipartisan team behind the poll, called Latino voters “the swingiest of swing groups” and described the reversal since 2024 as “stunning.” “What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier,” Roberts said. “Trump is a central figure. He’s had real consequences on our politics. And without his presence, I think none of these changes would be evident in the data among Latinos.” Recent elections support his read. According to AS/COA, Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia last year won back the ground Trump had gained with Latino voters in 2024. In Texas, Latino participation jumped in the March primaries, and most Latino voters chose the Democratic ballot.

Prices and deportations are driving Latino voters away from the GOP

The first reason is money. A third of Latino voters named inflation and the cost of living their top issue, more than any other concern in the poll. Similarly, 63% said their family’s income isn’t keeping up with prices. Three out of four disapprove of how Trump has handled the economy and the cost of living.

In other words, Republicans’ economic advantage in 2024 has flipped. Back then, Latino voters trusted Trump over Kamala Harris on the economy by 4 points. Now, they trust Democrats over Republicans by 21. Voters whose top concern is the cost of living have moved the most, from a 4-point preference for Republicans in 2024 to a 22-point preference for Democrats today.

The second reason is immigration enforcement. Two-thirds of Latino voters say Trump’s deportation policies have gone too far. Most still want some enforcement: 83% back deporting undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes. Meanwhile, 37% back deporting all undocumented immigrants. “There is support for a certain level of immigration enforcement. But the Latino electorate believes it’s gone way too far,” Roberts said.

The poll also shows how close enforcement has come to people’s daily lives. Nearly a third of Latino voters, 31%, say that they or someone close to them now carries identification because of ICE. And 27% know someone who was detained or deported in the past two years. Another 17% say they or someone close to them has considered skipping in-person voting this year out of fear of ICE.

Maria, a Florida voter in her 20s who did not give her last name, told NBC News that Trump has “fallen short” since she voted for him. She expected him to go after dangerous criminals, but “I’ve had many friends, family members deported,” she said. “They were supposed to be here. They had paperwork, and it didn’t matter. And now they can never come back. One of my friend’s grandpas didn’t even get deported to his home country. He got deported to Mexico instead of Cuba.”

Republicans built their midterm map on the 2024 Latino vote

Republicans counted on Trump’s 2024 gains holding. In Florida and Texas, they redrew House maps to create new districts with large Latino populations that Trump had carried comfortably, NBC News reported. And many of those seats are now in play.

Even Republicans who represent those voters are distancing themselves from the White House. In an opinion column for The Hill, Fox News senior political analyst Juan Williams pointed to an ad in which Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, addresses the president directly. “Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” Salazar says in the ad. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”

Latino voters say they are more engaged this year, too. In the poll, 72% put their interest in the election at 10 out of 10, up from 54% at this point in 2024. Asked what message their vote sends, 54% said it sends opposition to Trump. 21% said it sends support, and 23% said neither.

Latino voters are punishing Trump, not embracing Democrats

None of this means Latino voters have warmed to Democrats. The share with a negative view of the Democratic Party has risen 4 points since 2024, to 42%. Republicans also retain more Latino support than in any NBC News poll from 2012 to the 2024 cycle. And on border security, Trump’s best issue in the survey, Latino voters are evenly divided on which party would do a better job.

Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, the poll’s Democratic pollster, said the findings “indicate a striking reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms.” She was just as direct about the limits. “Despite a more favorable environment for Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats,” she said. “What do Democrats do to move beyond this place where they’re running on opposition to the Republican Party, which I think will work in ‘26? It’s sort of an open question of whether that will work in ‘28.”

For years, both parties have treated Latino voters as a bloc one could lock in. This poll says otherwise. We judge parties by what happens to our paychecks and our families, and we change our votes when those things get worse. Maria told NBC News she grew up in a family that taught her to fear socialism and Democrats, and she still doesn’t fully trust the party. She is leaning toward voting for its candidates anyway.

“I feel like I have to put my faith in them now to fix things,” she said.

Tags: Latino Voters, Midterms